Liberating Structures

Critical Uncertainties

Develop strategies for operating in a range of plausible yet unpredictable futures. This structure helps groups acknowledge what they cannot predict or control, then build robust strategies that work across multiple scenarios. Instead of pretending you know the future, you prepare for several — and become resilient no matter which one unfolds.

learn how to run it download free PDF

Critical Uncertainties

Develop strategies for operating in a range of plausible yet unpredictable futures.

Strategize

In person & Online

Group & Solo

100 min.

What is made possible - What it unlocks

Critical Uncertainties opens up strategic thinking beyond the usual “best guess” planning. Participants gain the ability to work constructively with ambiguity, surface hidden assumptions about the future, and craft flexible strategies that remain effective across wildly different scenarios. It transforms uncertainty from a source of anxiety into a canvas for creative, adaptive planning.

When to use it

When facing major strategic decisions with high uncertainty about key external factors
When your team is stuck in “prediction mode” and needs to embrace multiple futures
When developing long-term plans (3–10 years) where the landscape could shift dramatically
When diverse perspectives exist about what’s coming next and you need to honor all of them
When past forecasts have been consistently wrong and you need a different approach
When exploring how external forces (technology, policy, markets, climate) might evolve
When building organizational resilience and adaptive capacity
When conventional planning feels too linear or brittle for the complexity you’re facing

🛠️ The five design elements of Critical Uncertainties

Each Liberating Structure consists of five simple design elements to make participation possible for everyone. By shaping these elements with care, you move beyond rigid control or chaos and create space for people to contribute, listen, and co-create.

1. The Invitation
2. Setup & Materials
3. Participation Flow
4. Group Configuration
5. Sequence & Timing

1. The Invitation

How you frame the purpose or question that sets the focus and energy of the group.

Invite the group to identify and explore the most critical and uncertain “realities” in their operating environment or market
Then invite them to formulate strategies that would help them operate successfully in those different situations

“What factors that are outside your control could significantly impact your strategy? Which of these are both highly uncertain and highly important? How can we build strategies that work across multiple plausible futures?”

2. Setup & Materials

The arrangement of space and which tools or resources are needed to support interaction.

Four groups of chairs around tables
Paper, Post-it notes, flip charts, or tapestry paper for each group
Large wall space or digital whiteboard for creating a 2×2 matrix
Online: Breakout areas for strategy work and digital canvas plus digital sticky notes for brainstorming factors

3. Participation Flow

Who gets a voice and how everyone is actively included in the process.

Everyone responsible for planning and executing strategy is included
Everyone has an equal opportunity to contribute

4. Group Configuration

How people are arranged (alone, small groups, or all together) and how this shifts during the activity.

Have a group large and diverse enough to break it up into four separate small groups to develop the four scenarios and related strategies
If not, make two small groups
Works with groups of 8–40 people (larger groups can work in parallel)

5. Sequence & Timing

The step-by-step flow of the activity and the time given to each step to keep energy and focus.

Describe the sequence of steps. (2 min)
Invite participants to make a list of uncertainties they face by asking, “In your/our operating environment, what factors are impossible to predict or control their direction?” (5 min)
Using 1-2-4-All: Prioritize the most critical factors by asking, “Which factors threaten your/our ability to operate successfully?” (10 min)
Based on the group’s history and experience, select the two most critical and most uncertain (X and Y). (5 min)
Create a grid with two axes—X & Y—with a “more of <— —> less of” continuum for the factor to be represented on each axis. For example, for the X axis, if the number of new products is a critically uncertain factor, one end of the X axis is a large number of new products and the other is no new products. Repeat for the Y factor and axis. For instance, if patent protection is a critical factor, one end of the Y axis is strong patent protection and the other is no patent protection. Four quadrants are created. See example below. (5 min)
Divide the group into four smaller groups. Each of the four groups creatively names and writes a thumbnail scenario for one of the quadrants. (10 min)
The four groups share their scenarios briefly. (2 min. each)
Each group brainstorms three strategies that would help the group operate successfully in the scenario that it has described. (10 min)
The four groups share their strategies briefly. (2 min. each)
The whole group sifts results to identify which strategies are robust (strategies that can succeed in multiple quadrants) and which are hedging (strategies that can succeed in only one scenario but protect you from a plausible calamity). The balance of strategies can succeed only in one scenario. (10 min)
Each small group debriefs with What, So What, Now What? (W3) (10 min)
The four groups share their debriefs and the whole group makes first-steps decisions about their Now What. (10 min)

Total time: 100 minutes

Online version

Adapted for virtual use, with the same impact

Follow the same steps as above. Prepare a digital whiteboard with a large quadrant divided into 4 areas for groups to place their notes.

Use breakout rooms every time you work in smaller groups.

Total time: 100 minutes

Solo version

Adapted for individual use and personal development

Write down the challenge or decision you’re facing that involves significant uncertainty about the future (something 3-10 years out works well). Be as specific as possible. (3 min)
Make a list of all the uncertainties you face in your operating environment – factors that are impossible to predict or control. Think broadly: technology shifts, policy changes, market dynamics, climate impacts, cultural trends, resource availability. Aim for at least 10-15 factors. (10 min)
Review your list and mark the factors that would seriously threaten your ability to succeed if they went in an unfavorable direction. These are your “critical” uncertainties. (5 min)
From your marked items, identify the 2-3 factors that are both highly critical AND highly uncertain. These should be things where you genuinely don’t know which way they’ll go, but the direction matters enormously. (5 min)
Select your two most critical and uncertain factors – call these X and Y. For each one, define the two extremes. For example: if X is “number of new competitors,” one extreme is “many new competitors” and the other is “no new competitors.” Write these clearly. (5 min)
Draw a 2×2 grid. Label the horizontal axis with your X factor (left side = one extreme, right side = opposite extreme). Label the vertical axis with your Y factor (bottom = one extreme, top = opposite extreme). You now have four quadrants representing different future scenarios. (5 min)
Give each quadrant a creative name that captures its essence – use song titles, book titles, movie references, or whatever makes the scenario memorable and vivid. (5 min)
Write a brief thumbnail scenario for each quadrant (3-4 sentences). Describe what this future looks and feels like. What’s happening? Who’s winning? What surprises you? Be concrete and imaginative. (15 min)
For the first quadrant, brainstorm at least 5 strategies that would help you operate successfully in that specific scenario. Write these as concrete actions or approaches, not vague principles. (10 min)
Repeat step 9 for the other three quadrants, generating 5+ strategies for each. (30 min)
Review all your strategies across the four quadrants. Identify which strategies appear in multiple quadrants or would work across different futures – these are your “robust” strategies. Mark these clearly. (10 min)
Identify “hedging” strategies – actions that only work in one scenario but protect you from a plausible disaster. Mark these too. (5 min)
Reflect on these questions and write your observations: What does this analysis reveal about where you’ve been investing time and energy? What assumptions were you making about the future? What surprises you most about these scenarios? (10 min)
Write down 3-5 concrete first steps you can take right now based on your robust strategies. Focus on actions that position you well regardless of which future unfolds. (10 min)
Set a reminder to revisit your Critical Uncertainties map quarterly or yearly. Watch for signals about which scenario might be emerging, and adjust your strategy accordingly. (2 min)

Total time: ~ 130 minutes

Order now

All Liberating Structures in 1 e-book

All Liberating Structures (44!) including explanations, visual step-by-step guide, and worksheets in a handy workbook for € 11,-

Simple methods for big changes
Have interactions that truly matter
Build a culture of innovation step by step
Involve and activate everyone in the group

Show the e-book!

Proven over decades

🧠 Why it works

Liberating Structures are not magic tricks—they work because they tap into how people naturally think, connect, and collaborate. Each structure is carefully designed to unlock participation, spark creativity, and build trust, using principles grounded in social science and human interaction.

Attribution: Liberating Structure developed by Henri Lipmanowicz and Keith McCandless. Inspired by consultant Jay Ogilvy.

Cognitive Humility

By explicitly naming what you don't know, you escape the illusion of prediction and open up more creative strategic thinking.

Scenario Diversity

Different scenarios honor diverse views of the future and build shared understanding without requiring consensus on which one is "right".

Robust Decision-making

Strategies that work across multiple scenarios are inherently more resilient than plans optimized for a single predicted future.

Adaptive Capacity

The process builds organizational "future fitness" — the ability to sense, respond, and thrive amid change rather than being blindsided by it.

Riffs and Variations

Start with creative constraints to learn this structure and then... go liberate yourself and try some variations.

Scenario planning: Build from this short session to a full-blown scenario-planning initiative
Client interaction: For each scenario, invite small groups to dramatize a typical client interaction or product from the future that puts your strategies into play
Personas in scenarios: Create character “personas” living in each scenario to make the futures more visceral and human
Pre-mortem in each quadrant: Run a pre-mortem exercise within each scenario to identify what could go wrong
Strategic bets: Rather than only finding strategies that work everywhere, also identify “option value” moves — small bets that position you well if a particular scenario unfolds
Monitor and update: Set up a quarterly or yearly review to check which scenario seems to be emerging and adjust strategy accordingly
Visual storytelling: Use sketches, collages, or videos to bring each scenario to life

Tips

Lessons learned from other facilitators.

When brainstorming uncertainties, recall predictions-gone-wrong and events that caught the group off guard
Challenge wishful thinking and push participants to consider uncomfortable futures
Use 1-2-4-All in very short cycles for each step to maintain energy and engagement
Have fun with naming each quadrant — song titles, book titles, and pop culture references work nicely
Have fun developing the scenarios, for instance, by turning them into newspaper reports, podcasts, or video news clips from a future situation
Post-it notes help with combining and recombining ideas across scenarios and strategies
Regardless of role, a few people are naturals at scenario thinking: celebrate their skillfulness and let them lead by example

Traps

Don't make the same mistakes.

Choosing factors you can control (like “our marketing strategy”) instead of external uncertainties
Making scenarios too similar or not sufficiently distinct from each other
Spending too much time perfecting scenario details at the expense of strategic thinking
Secretly believing “our” preferred scenario is the real future and treating others as token alternatives
Failing to follow through — scenarios become an interesting exercise but don’t influence actual decisions
Confusing scenarios with predictions or probabilities (you’re not forecasting; you’re preparing)
Allowing dominant voices to steer the group toward comfortable or consensus futures rather than truly exploring divergent possibilities

Try it with…

The real power of Liberating Structures emerges when you combine them into "strings." Link different structures together to build on insights and create more powerful results. Here are some nice combinations:

What, So What, Now What? (W3) — After developing scenarios, use this to debrief and commit to concrete next steps
15% Solutions — Identify immediate actions each person can take to build resilience across scenarios
Purpose-to-Practice — Test whether your current practices serve you across all four futures
TRIZ — Explore what you’d need to stop doing in each scenario to succeed
Discovery & Action Dialogue — Go deep with frontline staff on what they’re seeing that might signal which future is emerging
Ecocycle Planning — Map your current portfolio of activities and decide what to renew, scale, or release in light of multiple futures

Field stories

To get to know Liberating Structures without having used them yourself, it helps to see familiar situations from real-life practice. Chances are that you or your team have faced one of these challenges before. Discover how to approach these kinds of situations in a fresh and engaging way.

Learn by Failing Forward

Learn by Failing Forward with Liberating Structures – Ecocycle Planning. A Field Story about how a team coach used Ecocycle Planning to create overview, make work patterns visible, and integrate learning into daily collaboration.

Never start without a clear purpose

Never start without a clear purpose – 9 Why’s. A Field Story about how a leader used the Liberating Structure ‘Nine Why’s’ to uncover the deeper purpose of a project and thereby restored focus, ownership, and calm.

Practice Self-discovery Within a Group

Practice Self-discovery Within a Group with Liberating Structures – What, So What, Now What? (W3). A Field Story about how a leader used What, So What, Now What? to stop explaining and create space for collective self-discovery and ownership.

Emphasize Possibilities: Believe Before You See

Emphasize Possibilities: Believe Before You See with Liberating Structures – Troika Consulting. A Field Story about how Troika Consulting as a peer-coaching structure increased confidence in the collective wisdom of a team and made possibilities visible.